A Hipótese de Samuelson no Mercado Futuro Brasileiro: Um Estudo Empírico / Samuelson's Hypothesis in the Brazilian Futures Market: An Empirical Study

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

24/11/2005

RESUMO

The research aimed to test whether what is known in the literature as Samuelson's Hypothesis applies to the Brazilian futures markets. The hypothesis postulates that the volatility of a futures prices returns increase as the maturity of the corresponding contract gets closer. Four futures contracts traded at the BM&F - Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros were studied, namely, those which have the Bovespa stock index, the American Dollar, cattle, and coffe as underlying assets. The period of the study covered from June-30-1994 to Apr-30-1998. Testing each futures contract with four different methodologies do not authorize saying that Samuelson´s Hypothesis applies to the Brazilian futures markets.

ASSUNTO(S)

hipótese de samuelson mercados futuros volatilidade bm&f

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