A dívida líquida do setor público no Brasil pós-real : uma interpretação keynesiana


IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia




The public sector¿s net debt in Brazil has showed a remarkable growth in Brazil since 1995, immediately after the period in which the monetary stability, based on Real, became a reality. What are the determinants of the public debt¿s during the Brazilian Real era? Providing an answer for this question is the main objective of this thesis. In order to achieve this goal, we formulate the hypothesis that increasing public debt was due to excessive financial costs incurred by the Brazilian public sector in the way of conducting monetary policy, both in the period when the monetary regime was the exchange anchor (July 1994 to January 1999) and after the institution of the Inflation Targeting Regime (since June 1999). To analyze the figures of the Brazilian public sector and to show that there is a relationship between the financial costs and the growing of public debt we will explore the theory of John Maynard Keynes, more specifically, his conception related to the monetary economies of production as an organic system and his economic policies prescriptions. Moreover, our theoretical framework will also explore the arguments and theories of some post-Keynesian economists, in particular Hyman Minsky and his Financial Fragility Hypothesis (FFH). The Minsky`s FFH is adapted to the Brazilian public sector and, as a result, it is elaborated a Financial Fragility Index for the Brazilian Public Sector. This Index measures the Brazilian sector public performance between 1995 and 2009. As a conclusion, on the one hand, it suggests that the monetary policy has to be operated in such a way that leads to a reduction in financial expenses of the Brazilian public sector. On the other hand, the economic policy, especially fiscal policy, must be implemented to create a favorable institutional environment to the private investment, which it is essential to expand the levels of employment, income and wealth, and balance, intertemporaly, the public budget.


setor público public finances public sector net debt finanças públicas keynes¿ economic policies economia keynesiana dívida pública public sector financial fragility index planos econômicos : plano real política monetária

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