Reavaliando a relação entre independência do Banco Central e custos de desinflação: uma análise de viés de seleção / Reassessing the relationship between Central Bank independence and disinflation costs: a selection bias analysis

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

22/11/2012

RESUMO

The majority of the empirical literature about the effects of central bank independence on disinflation costs found a positive relationship between these variables, meaning that more costly disinflationary episodes are related to countries with more independent central banks, opposing to the new classical theory, which states that there is a credibility premium in terms of disinflation costs for monetary policy. However, most of these works are concentrated only in disinflationary episodes of developed countries between the period of 1960-1990. Furthermore, the dominant econometric method used is Ordinary Least Squares, a technique incapable of controlling for the existence of endogeneity or selection bias. In that sense, the present work tries to contribute to the existing literature in two distinct ways: (1) by using a broader sample, which includes not only developing countries, but also more recent disinflationary episodes; and (2) by applying models based on propensity score, an econometric method capable of dealing with the possible existence of selection bias in the relationship between central bank independence and disinflation costs. A couple of important conclusions are obtained. First of all, when the models based on propensity score are used, a statistically insignificant effect of the central bank independence on disinflation costs is found. This result is sustained not only when making use of the broader sample introduced in the present work, but also when the sample commonly employed on the empirical literature is used. Moreover, the merely usage of the broader sample also yields an insignificant effect, meaning that even if there was a positive effect of central bank independence on disinflation costs until the end of the 1980\ s, the several changes occurred in the economic environment in the last two decades might have, at least partially, offset this impact.

ASSUNTO(S)

banco central central bank econometria econometrics macroeconomia macroeconomics monetary policy política monetária

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados