REAÇÃO DA POLÍTICA FISCAL E SUSTENTABILIDADE DA DÍVIDA FEDERAL NO BRASIL, 1994-2008 / FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE AND PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN BRAZIL, 1994-2008

AUTOR(ES)

VICTOR ALMEIDA SANTOS DE FREITAS

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

The years between 1994 and 2008 were a very important period in Brazil s fiscal history. The government regained control over its public deficit during those 14 years by increasing its primary surplus to as much as 3% of gross domestic product. This dissertation analyses these changes through qualitative and quantitative methods, exposing the strict fiscal policies that led to control of public debt. It also places emphasis on the significance of an active fiscal policy on public debt levels and the size of the primary surplus. Traditional tests were utilized to evaluate fiscal policy sustainability and, in addition, tests how the primary surplus is impacted, and predicated, by public debt levels. While there is enough evidence showing how primary balance adjustments were sufficient for stabilizing the debt in question, qualitative analysis points out a new source of instability: the continuous growth of primary expenses.

ASSUNTO(S)

fiscal policy sustentabilidade fiscal politica fiscal divida publica public debt fiscal sustainability

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