Previsão do impacto de racionamento de energia sobre a economia Pernambucana a partir da experiência de 2001/2002: uma análise de insumo-produto

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

This paper examines the requirements of energy needed for the development of economic activities of the State of Pernambuco and the key sectors in use of electricity and the economic effects of a restriction on the use of electricity in order to know the impacts of a rationing of goods. The methodology was the construction of a hybrid model of input-output to the economy pernambucana in order that through this model can analyze the effects of further restrictions on the use of an input as important as electricity. The results of this study were found which of the eleven sectors studied, the sectors that use more energy to develop its activities are the manufacturing of paper and printing industry, textile industry and miscellaneous industries. As for key sectors, there are five key sectors from the viewpoint of the chain forward, namely: Agriculture, non-ferrous metallurgy, chemical industry, other food and beverage industries and trade. From the viewpoint of the sequence backwards, there are five key sectors that are non-metallic minerals, paper and printing industry, chemical industry, textile industry and other food and beverages. The results showed also that the impact of a restriction on the consumption of electricity, are higher in sectors where the link with the economy is strong so that all sectors are also forced to reduce their production. Thus, when analyzed through the input-output matrix corresponding to a production chain, where each sector depends on at least one other sector to achieve its activities, the restriction on the use of this important input in the production chain may lead to problems relating to growth of the state

ASSUNTO(S)

rationing of energy economic growth engenharia de producao crescimento econômico input-output racionamento de energia insumo-produto

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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