Previsão de longo prazo da umidade do solo na bacia do rio Uruguai

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

Soil moisture is a very important variable in the interaction soil-atmosphere, contributing in hydrological processes and in agriculture. Determining this variable is an essential data for planning farming activities, and also when choosing the most adequate type of culture depending on the climate of the region. Water storage in the soil is also important for irrigated agriculture, in which the irrigation time and the amount of water to be applied can be determined using efficient experiments. This research focuses soil moisture forecast on dryland farming that strongly depends on the soil humidity, mostly using rainfall to complete the culture cycle and analysis of agricultural productivity forecast. The long term forecast was developed based on CFS precipitation models (Climate Forecast System) with a horizon of up to 6 months and estimated soil moisture based on the module of water balance in the soil of the hydrological model MGBIPH. The results showed that the proposed methodology in this research provides the best prediction results compared to the current applied methods, considering the reduction of the standard error of estimate in horizon from 1 to 6 months. These results allow better estimation of soil moisture and agricultural productivity in sub-region of the Uruguay river basin in Rio Grande do Sul.

ASSUNTO(S)

umidade do solo balanco hidrico produtividade agricola modelos hidrologicos bacia do rio uruguai

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