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Instituições orçamentárias e política fiscal no Brasil: governo federal - 1965 a 2010 / Budget institutions and fiscal policy in Brazil: federal government - 1965 to 2010
Ana Carolina Giuberti
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO
In the context of political, economic and theoretical chances that characterized the period from 1965 to 2010, this thesis studies the Brazilian Federal Government´s fiscal policy, on a long term perspective. In particular, it focuses on two points: the study of the pattern of tax financing and government spending; and the analysis of the budgetary institutions according to which budgets are prepared, approved and implemented, from the perspective of fiscal discipline, their changes over time, and the impact of this institutional framework in the observed results for fiscal policy. To overcome the lack of fiscal data for the whole period, series for federal revenues and expenditures were built from disaggregated data, obtained from primary and public sources. The results show two different patterns of income and expenses: the first pattern, linked to the state as promoter of industrialization, has taxes as its main source of fiscal revenue and higher expenses on infrastructure as share of GDP; in the second pattern, set by the Constitution of 1988, social contributions are the main source of tax revenue and expenditures on social security and welfare are the federal government main expenses. Regarding the institutional framework of the budget, two budget processes are identified, one from the military regime and the other established by the Constitution of 1988. They are analyzed and compared. Based on the methodology established in the literature of political economy linked to the macroeconomic mainstream, two budget index and their respective components are constructed, and its behavior over the 1965-2010 period shows that the observed changes resulted in institutions that lead to greater fiscal discipline. The impact of these institutions on the government´s fiscal performance is studied for the period of 1985 to 2009 and the results indicate that institutional changes contributed to a lower deficit.