EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK¿S FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTIONS USING HIGH FREQUENCY DATA / ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA DAS INTERVENÇÕES CAMBIAIS DO BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL USANDO DADOS DE ALTA FREQUÊNCIA

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

09/04/2012

RESUMO

The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the existence of abnormal returns in U.S. dollar futures contract maturing in the first moments near to the realization of exchange auctions by the Central Bank of Brazil. On the occasion of a positive response to the first question, we evaluated the persistence of these returns that ultimately describe how fast new information is disseminated and incorporated into prices. For this, we apply the frameworks of Event Studies and Microstructure of the exchange market to high-frequency data obtained from the BMANDFBovespa and the CB. The availability of transactions data allows the use of variable order flow and thus to correct potential problems related to omitted variable bias, not considered in the literature on Central Bank intervention. We found statistically positive abnormal returns in the minutes following the opening of an auction and negative in the minutes following the closure of the same event. Additionally, the evidence points to the direction that, among the times chosen by the monetary authority in the database, there is no statistically significant difference with respect to the effects of such events on the movements in the exchange rate on intraday basis.

ASSUNTO(S)

estudo de eventos event study mercado de cambio market exchange microestrutura de mercado market microstructure

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