AvaliaÃÃo do Impacto das MudanÃas ClimÃticas na Oferta HÃdrica da Bacia HidrogrÃfica do ReservatÃrio Ãros usando os Modelos de MudanÃas ClimÃticas do IPCC-AR4, levando em ConsideraÃÃo as Diversas Incertezas Associadas / Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply Watershed Reservoir Models using Ãros Climate Change IPCC-AR4, taking into consideration the Various Uncertainties Associated

AUTOR(ES)

Wescley de Sousa Fernandes

FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

21/06/2012

RESUMO

In the present work flow projections for the basin Ãros (CearÃ) were obtained using the precipitation of global models of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) for the period 2010 to 2099 the A1B scenario. The flows were generated by the hydrologic model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). To obtain these, the precipitations were statistically corrected from the observed data, considering the distributions of the type series range. The evaporation model input rainfall-runoff were two considerations, the first consideration obtained by using flow hydrologic model initialized with SMAP evaporation provided by INMET and considers that the second boot occur by evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Mothieth. For the analysis of interannual variations were observed the characteristics of trends of the series (using the classical method of Mann-Kendall-Sen), the changing patterns of variation (analysis of the mean and coefficient of variation of the series) and the analysis of extremes (compared cumulative distribution curves of the twentieth century and XXI). For seasonal analysis considered the climate anomaly in the middle of the XXI century models over the twentieth century. For analysis it was observed that interannual hydrologic model initialization SMAP with evaporation estimated by the modified Penann Motheith can arise as an implementation for the hypothesis test of Mann Kendall Sen. The calculation of the coefficient of variation showed that despite the short confrontation over the occurrence of variability, in the case of streamflow series obtained by SMAP initialized with estimated evaporation, the rounds of the models MIROC3_2_MEDRES reported increases in variability for the XXI century in relation to the twentieth century. When booting into SMAP occurs through evaporation provided by INMET is a great diversification in the values of variability. Although the interannual analysis, the curve of cumulative distribution function (CDF) showed that eight of the analyzed models (models initialized with evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Motheith-modified) 3 have a higher frequency of dry events, have a third event frequency wet and two models showing no meaningful analyzes approaching the curve generated by the series of observed flows. As for seasonal analysis of the flow is observed that when using the method of Penann Motheith modified to evaporation (initialization SMAP) values of flow rates become smaller than the values obtained by series generated by the hydrologic model initialized with evaporation provided by INMET , relating the new century, the twentieth century.

ASSUNTO(S)

engenharia civil recursos hÃdricos water resources. climate change. hydrology - mathematical models. mudanÃas climÃticas hidrologia - modelos matemÃticos

Documentos Relacionados

• AvaliaÃÃo da influÃncia das mudanÃas climÃticas na operaÃÃo Ãtima de sistema de reservatÃrios com mÃltiplos fins
• MudanÃas climÃticas e impactos na demanda de Ãgua para irrigaÃÃo na Bacia do Jaguaribe
• AnÃlise dos impactos das mudanÃas climÃticas no escoamento superficial da bacia hidrogrÃfica do rio TapacurÃ-PE, a partir da utilizaÃÃo de um modelo de balanÃo hÃdrico mensal semidistribuÃdo
• Vulnerabilidade de ReservatÃrios em Rios de Alta Variabilidade em um CenÃrio de MudanÃas ClimÃticas
• A expansÃo do turismo em comunidade litorÃne: participaÃÃo e mudanÃas